By H. Sterling Burnett, Heartland Institute
In the United States, greenhouse gas emissions have declined even as the economy and energy use have grown (the latter at a slower rate). This is true despite the fact that relative to other countries committed to cutting emissions under various climate agreements, the United States has had limited legal impositions on fossil fuel use, with those that exist being primarily related to coal-fueled power plants and tied up in court since the Obama administration first imposed them.
A new study published in the journal Energy Economics explores why U.S. emissions have declined in the face of energy and economic growth despite limited government coercion in the form of laws, taxes, and regulations. The authors conclude the fracking revolution—the development of hydraulic fracturing and horizontal drilling—“significantly altered the U.S. energy landscape through a surge in shale gas production.” Natural gas became relatively abundant, and gas power plants were cheaper to build and maintain. In addition, back-and-forth battles over power plant emission rules made natural gas the go-to choice for new baseload and peaking energy (combined with the expansion of intermittent wind and solar power). Gas power plants can provide power on demand, like coal and nuclear, but are easier to turn on and off quickly to provide power as needed.
Because greenhouse gas emissions are lower from gas plants than from coal plants, the switch from coal to gas resulted in in a reduction of “average annual U.S. greenhouse gas emissions per capita by roughly 7.5 percent,” the authors write.
The researchers broke the causes and effects of the switch from natural gas to coal into three categories: “changes in the fossil fuel mix (the substitution effect), changes in the speed of the transition to non-fossil energy sources (the transition effect), and changes in overall energy consumption (the consumption effect).”
Although I question their referring to natural gas as a “bridge fuel,” a phrase common in the early climate alarm literature, they did find that the shale revolution powered continued economic growth and a simultaneous decline in emissions between 2007 and 2019.
Source: Energy Economics
H. Sterling Burnett directs The Heartland Institute’s Arthur B. Robinson Center on Climate and Environmental Policy.